Is Luck Real, or Just Randomness?

Why Do People Believe in Luck?

Winning the lottery, making the right investment at the perfect time, or bumping into an old friend on the street—many people attribute these events to luck. But is luck real, or is it just an illusion created by randomness?

In this article, we’ll explore luck from three perspectives—psychology, probability, and neuroscience—and analyze how our minds shape the way we perceive good fortune and bad fortune.

I. Psychology: Luck as a Cognitive Framework

1. The Illusion of Control

People often overestimate their ability to control random events. For example, many lottery players choose “special numbers” like birthdays, believing it increases their chance of winning. In reality, the probability remains the same.

2. Attribution Styles and Luck

Psychological studies show that:

• Optimists tend to attribute good events to being “lucky” and bad events to chance.
• Pessimists often see themselves as “unlucky,” even in neutral situations.

This mindset influences behavior. Optimists act more confidently and seize opportunities, which can make them appear “luckier” in the long run.

3. Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

When you believe you are lucky, you’re more likely to take actions that create positive outcomes. Psychologist Richard Wiseman found that people who consider themselves “lucky” are indeed more likely to notice and take advantage of opportunities.

II. Probability: Luck as Randomness

1. Lotteries: Pure Probability

Every lottery number combination has the same probability of winning. The person who wins isn’t “chosen by fate”—they are simply the statistical outlier that probability guarantees will exist.

2. Investment Success: Survivor Bias

Some investors rise to fame by making the “right” moves at the “right” time. But statistically, out of millions of participants, someone will always get it right. This is known as survivor bias—we remember the winners, but forget the countless losers.

3. Coincidental Encounters

Meeting an old friend abroad might feel magical, but mathematically, if you encounter hundreds of people daily, the odds of a surprising coincidence eventually add up.

III. Neuroscience: How the Brain Creates the Feeling of Luck

1. Pattern Recognition

Our brains are wired to find patterns. For example, if you flip a coin twice and get two heads, you might feel “lucky,” even though each flip is independent.

2. Reward System and Dopamine

When something fortunate happens, the brain releases dopamine, reinforcing the sensation of being “lucky” and encouraging us to repeat behaviors associated with that feeling.

3. Attention Bias

We remember extraordinary events more vividly than ordinary ones. For example, we hear stories about lottery winners, but rarely think about the millions of people who lose. This selective memory creates the illusion that luck plays a bigger role than it really does.

IV. Everyday Examples of Luck

• Lottery Winners: Someone must win, and when they do, we call it “luck.”
• Investment Miracles: A few people profit in crises, but statistics explain it as survivor bias rather than fate.
• Street Encounters: Bumping into an old friend feels destined, but is often a natural result of probability.

Conclusion: Luck Is Both Real and Illusory

From a scientific perspective:

• Luck is real in the sense that it exists in our psychology, influences our actions, and shapes how we interpret life events.
• Luck is also an illusion, because all “lucky” outcomes can be explained through probability and brain processes.

The key insight is this:
👉 People who believe they are lucky tend to act in ways that create opportunities, making them more likely to experience positive outcomes.

Final Takeaway

Luck is not something you wait for—it’s something you create through mindset and action.

Keyword extended reading:

Luck

Randomness

Psychology

Probability

Neuroscience

Good Luck vs. Bad Luck

Self-Fulfilling Prophecy / Illusion of Control / Survivor Bias